Added to the ActiveRain report, a National Association of Realtors® (NAR) article of noted tells of a 9  percent increase in existing home sales for 2012 too.

Real Estate Is Back – 2013 ActiveRain Survey

© Maimento – Fotolia.com

Bearing that in mind, real estate watchers are keen to see which markets will display the strongest growth over the next few years, something that the experts at AOL Real Estate are also interested in. Recently, they ranked US cities based on the projected annualized change in home prices between now and 2017 to come up with a list of the best housing markets in the next five years. Many of the best-ranked cities have suffered huge price drops since the recession, so they’re expected to go hell for leather in the next five years as they try to make up for lost values.

#1 Medford, Oregon

By far and away the biggest expected improvement will take place in the sleepy town of Medford, Oregon, where prices have fallen by 39.2% since their 2006 peak. AOL’s experts are predicting an annualized growth rate of a whopping 9.7%, based on hopes of an improvement in the town’s depressing job market, where unemployment currently hovers at 10%.

Image courtesy ZabMilenko at en.wikipedia

#2 Santa Fe, New Mexico

Santa Fe hasn’t had such a bad time of things in comparison to other parts of the country, with prices dropping by a ‘mere’ 21.1% since their peak in Q4 of 2007. Even so, the experts are predicting a big upturn in fortunes for the city, which currently enjoys an unemployment rate that’s 5% below the national average. The city’s expected annualized growth rate is set to reach 9.1% throughout the next five years.

Image courtesy JHarrelson

#3 Panama City-Lynn Haven-Panama City Beach, Florida

Like most parts of Florida, the Panama City-Lynn Haven-Panama City Beach has been through a great deal of pain in recent years, with home prices sliding by a spectacular 41.9% from their 2006 peak. At present, the median price for a single-family home stands at just $143,000, yet it does appear that hope is on the horizon. Florida has been buoyed recently by an influx of foreign buyers, and as the backlog of foreclosures clear up we can finally expect things to pick up. According to AOL Real Estate, the city will see an annualized growth rate of 9.1% over the next five years.

Image courtesy JS Clark

#4 Sebastian-Vero Beach, Florida

Home prices in Sebastian and Vero Beach have suffered even more damage over the last eight years, falling by a whopping 50.5% from their peak in 2005. With median home prices of just $139,000 and an unemployment rate of 9.9%, this is a market that’s absolutely hit rock bottom, with only way left to go – and that’s upwards. AOL expects Sebastian-Vero Beach to hit an annualized growth rate of 8.9%, making it one of the hottest markets to watch.

Image courtesy Ebyabe

#5 Carson City, Nevada

The nation’s other big foreclosure hot-spot also gets a mention in the top five, suggesting that those who took the opportunity to invest in Nevada’s misfortune can expect a tidy profit in the next few years. Carson City homes have lost 51% of their value since 2006, while unemployment has sky-rocketed to 10.2% – a situation so bad that it can’t possibly continue for much longer. Experts predict the city to see annualized growth of around 8.5% between now and 2017.

photo credit: ScottSchrantz via photopin cc

“The most recent housing affordability data should be encouraging to many prospective home buyers, because it shows that homeownership remains within reach of median-income consumers even as most local markets appear to be on a recovery path,” says NAHB Chairman Rick Judson.

“The median price of all new and existing homes sold in the fourth quarter of 2012 was $188,000, essentially unchanged from the previous quarter’s $189,000 that marked a nearly three-year high,” says NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe. “Affordability remains historically high thanks to favorable mortgage rates, even as national home price indexes show some rise in values.”

The most affordable major housing market of the US for 2012 was Ogden-Clearfield, Utah, holding this high ranking for the second consecutive year with 93.7% of families affording a home with the area’s median income of $71,500. At the other end of the top, San Francisco-San Mateo-Redwood City, California is the least affordable market (position previously held by New York-White Plains-Wayne, N.Y.-N.J). In San Francisco, only 28.4% of all homes sold in Q4 were affordable to households earning the median income of $103,000.

According to FloridaRealtors, the state of Florida showed different affordability percentages depending on the various areas’ individual index. Lakeland-Winter Haven had a 93% affordability – the highest in the Sunshine State with nine out of 10 residents being able to afford a home, while Miami-Miami Beach-Kendall scored the lowest percentage, with 66%. Rounding up Florida’s top 10 most affordable areas were Ocala – 90.6%, Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach – 88.3%, Gainesville – 86.8%, Punta Gorda – 86.8%, Panama City-Lynn Haven-Panama City Beach – 85.6%, Tallahassee – 85.6%, Jacksonville – 85.2%, Port St. Lucie – 84.9% and Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Bren – 84.1%.

The Washington Post’s NoVa guru Tom Jackman reported last month Northern Virginia real estate not only being “back”, but a relative “boom” occurring there where the supply of $600k homes is concerned. Aside his focus on that price niche, other positives are clear for the region. Jaunuary, as compared to the previous year, shows clear signs of some counties around Washington doing a lot better sales wise. This Long & Foster Market Minute Market Minute® report tells on the trend best.

NoVa Townhome find near buildup area

Accordingly, hot spots include; the city of Alexandria, and the counties of Arlington, Fairfax, Loundoun (see spotlight below), and Prince William saw increased sales y-on-y. With these increased sales numbers, of course inventories began to dwindle as well. Ergo Jackman’s headline of “NoVa real estate back to booming? $600K houses in short supply, condos in high demand”, this is the sort of language investors want to hear, in case you wondered at Jackman’s readership.

Taking a closer look at NoVa, and for those who are not familiar, The Long & Foster Market Minute® reports come from minute data on residential transactions that are geo-centric, and include universal sales, not just Long & Fosters. Looking at the chart below from their Washington D.C. Metropolitan Area – January 2013 (PDF), Jackman’s contention can more easily be seen.

The key metric in NoVa is inventory – courtesy Long & Foster

While the general reduction of inventory trend can easily be seen here, the fact $450k to $650k and above inventory simply does not exist, this is a bit more difficult to pick out in my screenshot. Furthermore, the Long & Foster data clearly shows that most of the NoVa inventory is in fact within the lowest price ranges, somewhere beneath $150k.

Now (trend spotlight), to abbreviate our own report, all any investor would seem to require here might be news like Shenandoah University in Loundoun County expanding their graduate programs, after all expanded classrooms require expanded professor and/or student housing. Add to this further news that Loundoun County may get a campus of Northern Virginia Community College, and the housing picture there takes on new meaning. In fact there is no shortage of news on the trend in NoVa continuing, or even getting more acute where residential inventories are concerned.

Finally, when looking at these regional trends it seems the really tuned in observer might look at this trend from a more winning perspective. Not only are there outside forces like adjacent regional sales pressures etc. but clear opportunities may even present themselves here on a very practical level. What I mean is, using more Long & Foster detail we can look at properties and trends in and around the aforementioned Shenandoah University expansion, take nearby Ashburn Homes, for an instance. With median prices at the lower end of our “inventory scale” ($335,000), and active inventory having gone up last month, for me this says “potential win” if I am looking to buy and sell. One can even hammer out just how much to offer for a property using Long & Foster’s “sales vs. asking” price metrics (below).

In concluding, searching the listings in and around this part of NoVa we find a Long & Foster property a mile from our target at Shenandoah University, a large area townhouse at Ashburn Village priced at $275,000 (image top). Extrapolating our data it seems like a offer of one percent less than the median price is in order. With some hammering down on the deal here, and some patience, somehow coming out ahead in such a market would be a foregone conclusion. There’s margin to be made in them Virginia hills.

Let us know your thoughts.

Photo credit: Investor – courtesy © Sergey Nivens – Fotolia.com

Construction magnate Rafael Santamaria (pictured) holds the majority stake of 70% in Reyal Urbis, the firm owing money to creditors such as Santander, BBVA, Bankia and Banco Popular. The real estate company’s portfolio was valued at 4.2 billion euros in June 2012. Reyal Urbis will continue to operate as stipulated by insolvency laws in Spain, if a judge approves its petition. The company plans to keep Santamaria as leader. The real estate magnate stated he still hoped the firm would be able to strike a deal with creditors. 

Reyal Urbis had until February 23 to either reach a debt restructuring agreement with the banks or file for insolvency. The early petition might be the result of their proposal of 3.6 billion euros was rejected by creditors according to sources quoted by Reuters. Spain’s stock market regulator also suspended the trading of Reyal’s shares on Tuesday, after the stock had recorded a 99% decrease since June 2007, closing at 0.124 euros yesterday.

Other than money to creditors, Reyal Urbis also owed almost 900 finished homes at the end of 2011. The firm also has 8 million square meters of development land and another 237,000 of commercial property comprising of offices, shopping centers, industrial property and hotels.

Reyal Urbis adds to the list of dozens of real estate companies which have gone belly up in Spain as house prices fell 40% since peak year 2007. As the country still struggles with depression, prices are expected to continue to drop.

Atlanta: No longer a buyer’s market © novikat – Fotolia.com

Having cleaned out areas like Phoenix, mega investor groups are now focused on Atlanta, Tampa and other southern cities. What’s driving this interest? What else but potential profit. Economists at Goldman Sacs compare treasury notes at 2% with calculated yields averaging more than 6% nationwide on rental properties. In Phoenix, prices were up 24% from 11/11 to 11/12 versus 7.4% for the nation. That of course needs to be kept in context, but the influence of bulk purchases by investment groups is indisputable when it comes to the data. Inventory and time on market is down, while prices are up, and not just for distressed homes.

So what’s the bottom line for distressed properties in Atlanta? Or more broadly, homes under 200K? Simple, it is now a seller’s market and the idea that bargains are to be had should be dismissed. Considering a balanced market to have a 6+- month supply of homes, the greater Atlanta real estate market shows the following levels as of Dec:

• Under 100K – 1.7 months
• 100K-200K – 2.7 months
• 200K-300K – 4.5 months

The metro Atlanta market as a whole saw supply drop about 41% across all price points from Dec ’11 through Dec ’12. From 0-$500K it’s a seller’s market; 500K+ remains a buyer’s market but supply has been cut in about half as the pendulum swings. Data for the micro markets in the greater Atlanta real estate market vary, but trends are positive overall.

Even more startling are the prices being paid for homes over the last quarter of the year. At or over list price transactions are being seen in surprisingly high percentages. This is not exclusive to distressed homes:

• Under 100K – 31%+- of distressed sales and 8+-% of non-distressed sales were at or over list
• 100K-200K – 12%+- of distressed sales and 10+-% of non-distressed sales were at or over list
• 200K–300K – 4%+- of distressed sales and 9% of non-distressed sales were at or over list
• Of all 4^th Qtr ’12 sales, 13.5%+- of distressed sales and 9%+- of non-distressed sales were at or over list

So the Atlanta home buyer is chasing fewer properties, facing more completion and paying higher prices. They’re also seeing the time to chase these properties dwindle; homes are selling quickly, and so those not fully prepared to buy are never really in the game. Consider median days on market for 4^th Qtr ‘12

• Under 100K – 56 days
• 100K-200K – 75 days
• 200K-300K – 91 days

The data is clear, home buyers in Atlanta under 200K are working in a seller’s market. The influence of large investors is clear; expect more competition, higher prices and a much shorter window in which to make decisions. Multiple offers and calls for “highest and best” are routine, as investor activity has tripled in Atlanta over the last year. These investors have a huge appetite and the hoarding of Atlanta homes for sale under 150K will continue until they move on to the next city or the flavor of the week changes from real estate to something else. When that happens and these same homes are cut loose, we’ll likely see the cycle begin all over again.

“The strong end to the year illustrates that investors remain attracted to real estate opportunities, especially in the UK, Germany, France and Sweden. Interestingly, there was also a marginal increase in activity in markets such as Ireland and Spain during Q4 2012 which signals increased momentum for 2013. While much has been made about the increasingly globalisation of capital flows, the strength of the domestic market should not be overlooked. German, French and UK investors were the largest gross investors in Europe over the last year,” said Richard Bloxam, Head of European Capital Markets at Jones Lang LaSalle. 

The research further determined that there were eight cross-border deals of over €500m in Q4 2012 in Europe, and three such large deals in Paris. European retail investment volumes (excluding high street) were €19.4 billion below their 2011 level – €31.3 billion, result caused mainly by the lack of product on the market.

“The office sector had a stellar year in 2012, with activity increasing 24% year-on-year; almost 60% of office activity in 2012 was within London, Paris and the German Big 5 cities. This has helped consolidate London and Paris as two of the top 10 traded cities globally, with London holding onto top spot in 2012. Despite on-going demand for good quality shopping centres as evidenced by several large deals in Q4, retail investment volumes over the full year 2012 were down year on year due to a limited supply of appropriate product,” Bloxam added

Major international investors access product by partnering their equity with expertise, a good example being NBIM’s acquisition of a 50% stake in Meadowhall and CPPIB*’s joint venture with CityCon, a leading retail specialist in the Nordics

“In 2012 we recorded a 36% increase in net investment into Europe by investors based outside of the region compared to 2011. The largest growth originated from Asia, where purchases into Europe grew by a staggering 80% year on year,” explained Matthew Richards, Head of International Capital Group Europe. “We expect Asian offshore buyers to be many of the dominant sources of new capital this year and beyond as domestic regulations now allow investment outside of their domestic real estate market.”

The greatest real estate deal involving a single property was seen by Switzerland, the purchase of Credit Suisse’s Uetlihof office complex in Zurich by NBIM for CHF 1 billion (€828 million, USD 1.07 billion). Another notable deal of 2012 was ITFP’s sale of the Statoil Regional HQ in Oslo for circa €430 million to a syndicate of investors arranged by Arctic Securities, a Norwegian investment bank.

“We are forecasting global volumes could reach US$500bn in 2013 from US$443 in 2012, due to increased levels of demand for real estate coupled with a strategic reallocation towards this asset class by institutional investors. The Europe, Middle East and Africa region is expected to maintain similar volumes in 2013 to those achieved in 2012,” Richards added.

By way of a little background here, Caroline Rose Hunt (left courtesy Dallas United Way), the daughter of Texas oil legend H.L. Hunt, started the exquisite luxury brand Rosewood Hotels and Resorts some time back. She is, by all accounts, as close to American royalty and classiness as American’s can get. And yes, filthy rich too. Her father was at the time of this death, the richest man in the world. The Hunt Brothers, her brothers, also had their share of fame and fortune, and ups and downs too.

All this is, however, great raw materials for another story, but since the opening of The Mansion on Turtle Creek back in 1979, Mrs. Hunt’s Rosewood has been synonymous with luxury and excellence, at least with those familiar. Not the household name it could really be, Mrs. Hunt’s enterprises latest emergence here, might well be the most interesting of all. America is, as you know, all but flat broke by some accounts.

Rosewood’s Realty Trac shows off Miami

Brown’s story, at first, tweaked my sense of curiosity. Whenever I hear on the one hand of a company shooting for more brand awareness, and see something completely contravening on the other side of the equation, you see the rub here – Rosewood Property is not exactly Google on this channel, now is it? I am speaking of the relative obscurity of Rosewood Property outside the boundaries of the Lone Star State. Even within the boundaries if one considers news, social media, modern marketing at all, brand awareness for Mrs. Hunt’s wonderful initiatives is… lacking. As I found out, this is an illusion.

But, looking at the pictures on the company’s website, those do do Mrs. Hunt’s company’s sincere justice. If only the world knew more.

Rosewood Property Company projects page

Here, another New York Times story about Mrs. Hunt here projects, at least for me, a tiny fragment of that time when we all thought anything was possible. Well dressed ladies, cigar smoking Texas oil men, the space race, an opulent Camelot reminiscence hits me when reading about Mrs. Hunt’s endeavors, her habits not unlike so many ladies I spied from the stairwell, at dinner parties I was supposed to sleep through. Transported back to the now, I am sure when Mrs. Hunt hired Bill Flaherty three two years ago, it was not some cavalier decision. Why has the company waited to step into the branding arena til now? Maybe preparedness is as my old Scout Master used to profess, you always need this first. Then again, maybe the company is just too darned busy?

This whole “visibility” thing has set us one end, those of us imbued with a sense of self, a sense of digital superiority brought on by 100,000 hours or more of web machination. The fact is, there are some entities out there so immense and powerful, so caught up in the business of supporting employees and satisfying stockholders, they resemble more an oil derrick, one gushing crude so hard capping one instant can be daunting.

Rosewood Court designed by HKS Architects – courtesy Baker Triangle contractors

Rosewood has plenty of entrenched legacy going on, Flaherty’s main task has probably been to build portfolio. Working backwards on a mini-company timeline since his involvement, we see.

1. Rosewood Court (above) receives the the U.S. Green Building Council’s LEED® Gold certification
2. Andronico’s Community Markets blog announces SunFed Ranch Organic Ground Beef
3. Rosewood Estates Winery announces 2009 Pinot Noir Reserve @ LCBO Vintages
4. File & ServeXpress Showcases Choice for Courts at eCourts Conference
5. Portfolio company States Industries acquires California based Drawer Box Specialties
6. REALTYTRAC® ACQUIRES HOMEFACTS®
7. Subsidiary Vision-Ease Lens Helps Twin Cities Habitat for Humanity Build a Home in Coon Rapids
8. Rosewood Private Investments has Acquired the Assets of RealtyTrac, Inc. (immediately after Flahert’s naming)

John Bunker Sands Wetland Center - A Rosewood Corporate initiative

The point I would make here is, one does not always see what is beneath each tiny news bit. Mrs. Hunt’s businesses not only represent a sort of Rothschild like empire, but substantial philanthropic, community, and even political influence as well. From a new D/FW Airport development to fittings and engineering for some distant North Sea oil drilling rig, even to the table wines, special beef cattle, timber products, specialty services, and luxurious accommodation shown above, Rosewood makes me think about Rosebud from the famous Orson Welles film, for some reason. Of course Rosewood Hotels and Resorts was sold back in 2011, but the core principles Mrs. Hunt branded with the company originally, those still stand. You can see it in the services and products still produced.

States Industries products revealed

Will Rosewood Property get a higher profile in the Dallas and other markets? You can take that to the bank. As for what Mrs. Hunt’s legacy probably should be? Let me get on my soap box here. You see my friends, if there is one thing that can save the so called American Way, it is a big does of American money. More important than that though, an American aristocrat could probably do anything when compared to today’s decision-less horde.

This is my hope anyway. I leave you with the ongoing legacy Mrs. Hunt started more than three decades ago. While her companies no longer own the Rosewood Hotels, icons like this famous Dallas landmark simply are always with us. And there is my tribute to some things I had somehow forgotten.

Image credit: Featured Dallas Office Complex – courtesy Barbra Murray, Contributing Editor, Commercial Property Executive.

Brokers are more and more confident in the intermediary sector, an upward trend that has been consistent with the results of the past two quarters. 3% more brokers than in the previous month say they have greater confidence in the industry. The majority consider that the main reason for their increasing confidence the lower rates generated by the funding for lending scheme.

‘It is encouraging to see increasing confidence in the sector over the last quarter. Whilst the economic outlook remains challenging, we are seeing a slight easing of funding pressures, leading to an increasing number of lenders reducing rates and launching new products to the market, providing further optimism,’ said Ian Wilson, head of Halifax Intermediaries.

While they are confident in the segment, brokers are less confident in the performance of their own business, the survey showing a 2% decrease from the previous quarter. The good news is that of those who still believe in the success of their firm in 2013, the percentage of those being very confident is higher.

The average number of cases written per broker went up in 2012, reaching 70.25, while the 2011 value for the same indicator was of 64.25. The competitive rates offered in 2012 were the cause of this increase. In Q4 of last year, cases from home movers and first time buyers were stagnant, remortgages and buy to let applications dropped. Brokers also stated there had been an increase in the volume of specialist buy to let lending and remortgage activity in 2012, reporting a year on year growth of 17% and 1% respectively. Overall, brokers reported an increase in the volume of specialist buy to let lending and remortgage activity last year, up 17% and 1% respectively, compared to 2011.

While overall data show an increase, there is a regional devide, with a higher increase for property asking prices in London (3.6%), the South East (3%) and the West Midlands 92.6%). At the other end of dropping asking prices are Wales with a 3.5% decrease, East Anglia (2.5%), the North West (1.8) and the Northern region (0.1%). The only Northern regions reporting an increase were Yorkshire and Humberside.

‘Those coming to market this month have taken a pragmatic pricing approach and kept their asking prices pretty much the same as sellers in December. Sensible pricing will help buyer affordability, one of the factors needed to help warm up the market and encourage a recovery from the credit crunch freeze in transaction volumes,’ said Miles Shipside, director and housing market analyst at Rightmove.  ‘The thaw will also be helped by growing confidence that prices are more likely to go up than down. There is an increasing body of evidence suggesting genuine green shoots of recovery after a prolonged period of the housing market bumping along the bottom.’

According to the newly released data, the weekly run rate for new properties listing in January was 11,153, 22% higher than last years value. While overall it is still down 37% compared to figures from before the credit crunch recorded five years ago, this is still the highest level in the beginning of a year since 2008.

‘While the number of sellers financially fit enough to come to market is still well down on pre credit crunch levels, there appears to be an increased willingness among those that can to give it a go. With Rightmove breaking traffic records, the chances of selling are on the up for sellers whose properties match the price, location and finish requirements of the greater numbers who are searching for a property to buy,’ explained Shipside. ‘Agents in many parts of the country report that the market remains patchy depending on where you live and what type of property you are selling. However, they are all consistent in noting that it is the best finished properties that are the most in-demand, especially as buyers do not have the spare cash to improve their new home so are hunting for the finished article.’

Rightmove’s latest data also showed that those who are going to put property on the market throughout 2013 are primarily driven by discretionary factors. 7 in 10 sellers are in this situation and not forced into the sale by factors such as the three Ds of death, debt and divorce.  Moderately greater mortgage lending might be in play for this year to support the increasing transaction volumes. According to the latest mortgage statistics released by the Bank of England, approvals were up by 3% from November 2011 to November 2012, the highest number of approvals recorded in November since 2007.

‘Those on the wrong side of the minimum deposit borderline are still marginalised, but those that have the funds and earning capacity to trade up will find some lenders offering fixed rate deals at their most attractive ever levels. Lenders are also courting buy to let investors as some areas offer a low risk combination of historically cheap purchase prices and attractive rental income. Rightmove research of professional landlords shows that 74% of those surveyed intend to buy and increase their portfolios within the next 12 months,’ Shipside explained further. ‘A further sign of market recovery is when investors look to property to achieve good returns. The majority of professional property investors appear to have spotted that now is the time to increase their investment, and they are obviously confident that prices are not going to get cheaper.’

While Rightmove comes with a bright forecast for property transactions and the real estate field in general for 2013, not everyone shares their enthusiasm. Nick Hopkinson, director of property company, PPR Estates, painting a very different picture.

‘Seller numbers, whilst up on last year, are still around half the numbers needed in a functioning market with an average of only 64 properties per agent in December 2012. Buyers still require huge deposits going into 2013. Typically they still average 20% according to the latest industry data and, of course, a perfect credit score remains essential for any borrowing. Also, potential buyers are not so easily excited about house prices and actual buying prices remain slightly down at best, excluding the London bubble, when you look at the most recent completion statistics,’ he said.