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Mark Zandi, chief economic analyst for Moody’s, ought to know better than most. Considered to be one of the nation’s leading economic authorities, he points to similarities between today’s “housing renaissance” and previous recoveries since World War II.

“A housing revival is key to any optimism about the broader economy and jobs,” explains Zandi to the Washington Post.

“Now that housing is finally getting its bearings, it will turn from an economic headwind into a tailwind and become a significant source of jobs. There will be more construction jobs, construction-related manufacturing jobs, transportation and distribution jobs, retailing jobs, financial services jobs and a range of service jobs from cable hookups to landscaping. A better housing market is the principal missing link to a better job market.”

That’s a pretty bold statement to make, even with the present signs of optimism all around us, but Zandi argues that driving this is the fact that owning a home hasn’t been so attractive in years, something that will tempt growing numbers of people to do what it takes to buy. While tight credit standards are holding some back (for now), those that can obtain are taking advantage of low housing prices and super-low interest rates. Zandi also points to another factor – increasing rents – that leads many to think that buying makes more sense from a financial perspective.

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The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported last week that it’s expecting 30-year fixed rates to rise to an average 4.1% later this year, and then further still to 4.5% by 2014, compared to the 3.7% average we’re at now. Due to this, the dollar value of home refinancings is expected to drop to $818 billion in 2013, and then $350 billion the year after, down from a high of around $12 trillion last year.

These are big changes, but they will be unlikely to impact much on home sales our new housing starts over the next year, reports Investor.com.

“Interest rates are so low right now that a modest increase wouldn’t have much effect on sales,” said the NAR’s Walter Molony.

No reason for concern

The main concerns for economists, should rates go up as expected, are that those homeowners who did refinance over the last couple of years are unlikely to want to move-up and buy themselves a bigger home, simply because they won’t want to risk paying higher rates again.

However, Investor.com says that this is unlikely to have a major impact on housing, with the biggest concern being a loosening of credit standards instead. Molony points out that many people want to buy but simply cannot qualify for a mortgage right now – should banks return to ‘normal’ standards, we could see sales boosted by as much as 10% to 15%.

Overall, the MBA’s forecast for the year ahead is optimistic at best, with housing starts expected to increase by 18% in 2013 compared to the year before (909,00 new starts), while new home sales should rise by 12% (407,000 sales). Existing homes meanwhile, can expect to see a 3.7% leap in sales, with median prices rising by 4.9% across the nation.