TKI, a software development company with more than 20 years of real estate experience, today unveiled its quarterly nSkope Predictive Analytics Report that identifies more than 7.3 million homes in 364 studied Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) that are most likely to come on the market through June 2023. The report suggests that families with children in grades K-12 will increase their market presence to 22.5% of all homes sold.
The report broke down each MSA by size and found that of those markets with a population of less than 100,000, Rome, Ga., had the most predicted listings expected to come on the market by June 2023 with 4,323 properties.
Gainesville, Ga., led communities with 100,000 to 250,000 in population with nearly 15,000 projected listings. Port St. Lucie, Fla. (23,800), Durham-Chapel Hill, N.C. (44,850), North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, Fla. (40,141), Nashville-Davidson-Murfreesboro-Franklin, Tenn. (82,050), Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, Ariz. (136,394) and New York-Newark-Jersey City, N.Y.-N.J.-Pa. (280,999) followed in leading specific population breakouts. (See charts below.)
nSkope, which utilized proprietary algorithms enhanced by artificial intelligence to analyze over 300 data points and identify patterns and correlations, broke out each MSA by Census population counts to determine the most predictive markets by size.
Along with predicting future listings, TKI also reviewed nSkope data to determine which MSAs had the highest success rate based on reviewing June 2021 predictions. Jackson, Mich., had 1,021 of the 5,879 predicted addresses come on the market between June 2021-June and 2022, a nation-leading 17.37% conversion rate. Jacksonville, N.C., New Orleans-Metairie, La., and Kalamazoo-Portage, Mich., also were above 15% success rates.
|Top 10 Most Accurate MSAs June 2021-June 2022||Predicted||Converted||% Accurate|
|New Orleans-Metairie, La.||27,757||4,723||17.02|
|Colorado Springs, Colo.||33,103||3,748||11.32|
|Crestview-Fort Walton Beach-Destin, Fla.||11,549||1,285||11.13|
|New Bern, N.C.||5,838||614||10.52|
Of the nation’s most-populated MSAs, nSkope saw 7.89% of its predicted homes in Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, Ariz., come on the market through June 2021-June 2022. The Chicago and Atlanta markets followed in success rates.
|Top 10 Largest MSAs June 2021-June 2022||Predicted||Converted||% Accurate|
|Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, Ga.||212,212||13,865||6.53|
|Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, Texas||234,049||14,029||5.99|
|Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, Texas||205,592||12,294||5.98|
|Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL||113,502||6,593||5.81|
|Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA||218,025||10,038||4.60|
|New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA||287,937||12,599||4.38|
Overall, nSkope examined the nation’s approximately 128 million homes and predicted about seven million would come on the market between June 2021-June 2022. Its average national success rate was 8.2%.
“The application of predictive analytics has come a long way and should begin to play an even greater role in the marketing efforts of real estate brokerages and large teams,” said Tom Gamble, co-founder, and CEO of TKI. “The cost of targeted marketing continuously increases and much of that effort is wasted reaching those who are not candidates to list their home. Our work helps shrink the target pool and showcases which properties may come on the market and why these addresses and potential clients should be targeted.
“In an age where a closing rate of two percent of all leads would be unheard of, nSkope becomes an incredibly valuable tool,” Gamble continued. “For example, in Jackson, had a brokerage or team targeted only those homes we predicted would sell and secured them as clients, they would have seen a 17% conversion rate. It is also important for real estate professionals to continuously recognize that leads and our type of data are just a start. A lot of work must be done to turn potential opportunities into actual clients.”
nSkope attaches a variety of personas to each projected listing, helping real estate professionals understand “who” the potential sellers are. The Predictive Analytics Report found that families with school-aged children will likely generate 22.6% of listings through June 2023. This was up from a 21.5% predicted for a 12-month span beginning in March. Retirees and mature households are expected to also increase their presence.
|Profile||Profile Definition||Q2 2022|
% of All Predicted Sales
|Q1 2002% of All Predicted Sales|
|School-aged Family||A household representing a family with children in grades K-12.||22.5%||21.5%|
|Families||A household with at least one child 18-or-older defined as living at home||14.6%||16.7%|
|Mature Households||Consists of empty nesters or adults with no children that are not yet at retirement age.||10.8%||10.3%|
|Singles||A household that has one adult and no children reported.||9.6%||10.0%|
|Retirees||A household with homeowners that are within retirement age.||7.8%||6.9%|
In reviewing data collected between June 2021-June 2022, nSkope successfully predicted 7.67% of those households that were identified as families with children in grades K-12.
“We just don’t think it is enough for real estate marketers to know which homes may come on the market. Instead, we feel its critical that we use ‘big data to help us best segment them so imagery and messaging can immediately match that home,” Gamble said. “These are not leads. They are prospective clients. And, in many instances, they are a long way from making the listing decision, which allows brokerages and teams to be in front of them as early as possible to develop a relationship.”
Below follows a list of those markets with most homes predicted to come on the market through June 2023 in eight different population sizes:
|Markets Under 100,000 Population||Predicted Listings Through June 2023|
|Cape Girardeau, Mo.-Ill.||2,869|
|Grants Pass, Ore.||2,541|
|Markets 100,000-250,000 Population||Predicted Listings Through June 2023|
|Iowa City, Iowa||11,285|
|Punta Gorda, Fla.||11,272|
|Barnstable Town, Mass.||10,372|
|Markets 250,000-500,000 Population||Predicted Listings Through June 2023|
|Port St. Lucie, Fla.||23,800|
|Fort Collins, Colo.||20,395|
|Naples-Marco Island, Fla.||20,041|
|Myrtle Beach-Conway-North Myrtle Beach, S.C.-N.C.||19,061|
|Fort Wayne, Ind.||17,037|
|Markets 500,000-750,000 Population||Predicted Listings Through June 2023|
|Durham-Chapel Hill, N.C.||44,850|
|Des Moines-West Des Moines, Iowa||34,677|
|Lakeland-Winter Haven, Fla.||23,979|
|Port St. Lucie, Fla.||23,800|
|Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, Fla.||23,495|
|Markets 750,000-1 Million Population||Predicted Listings Through June 2023|
|North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, Fa.||40,141|
|Cape Coral-Fort Myers, Fla.||35,609|
|Omaha-Council Bluffs, Neb.-Iowa||34,113|
|Colorado Springs, Colo.||32,345|
|Charleston-North Charleston, S.C.||28,193|
|Markets 1-2 Million Population||Predicted Listings Through June 2023|
|Oklahoma City, Okla.||42,448|
|Salt Lake City, Utah||38,769|
|Louisville/Jefferson County, Ky.-Ind.||37,593|
|Hartford-East Hartford-Middletown, Conn.||36,282|
|Markets 2-4 Million Population||Predicted Listings Through June 2023|
|San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, Calif.||117,457|
|Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, Calif.||107,895|
|Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, Fla.||93,578|
|San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, Calif.||82,928|
|Markets Under Above 4 Million Population||Predicted Listings Through June 2023|
|New York-Newark-Jersey City, N.Y.-N.J.-Pa.||280,999|
|Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, Texas||235,338|
|Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, Calif.||214,522|
|Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, Ga.||208,133|
|Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, Texas||202,488|
|Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, Fla.||96,356|
Methodology: More than 128 million households were included in a July 1, 2022 report that utilized more than 300 data points to discover approximately 7 million homes are likely to be listed over the next 6- 12 months.
TKI was founded in 2002 and has worked with such clients as Comcast, QVC, Coldwell Banker Real Estate, Realogy, Cox, CTAM and the NFL. The software development company specializes in lead generation brand asset management and marketing automation. For more information contact https://tkinteractive.com.
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