TKI’S QUARTERLY nSKOPE PREDICTIVE ANALYTICS REPORT SHOWS OLDER AMERICANS MAY HAVE MAJOR IMPACT ON U.S. HOUSING MARKET OVER NEXT 12 MONTHS

TKI, a software development company with more than 20 years of real estate experience, today unveiled its quarterly nSkope Predictive Analytics Report that shows that “Empty Nesters” and retirees may have a significant impact on the U.S. real estate market over the next 12 months. 

The report, which predicts a total of 5.7 million homes that have a higher probability to come on the market over the next 12 months, found that older Americans may make up a sizeable portion of those who list their homes:

• Empty nesters, homeowners between 45-64 with no children at home, are expected to make up 10.2% of all listings.
• Adult singles (35-64) will likely add 8.7%. 
• Retirees (those 65-and-older) are expected to be 7.5% of the selling community.
• Older families, those with at least one child 18-24 living at home, may account for 6.3% of all listings.

“With a projected slowdown in 2023 sales, it is critically important to understand the lifestyle triggers that will impact listings,” said Tom Gamble, co-founder and CEO of TKI. “Older families and Americans should not be forgotten. They make up a sizeable pool of potential sellers and should be marketed to. Obviously, growing families will always be sales drivers, but the report shows that a sizeable percentage of potential sellers are not in this group. They are likely not looking to move up or be in better school districts. This is especially true in numerous Florida and Arizona markets, along with places like Myrtle Beach and Santa Rosa where the older age groups are over-indexing.”

Looking back at December 2021-December 2022, seven of the top 10 highest percentage of correctly predicted listings for retirees were in Florida. The Villages led the retiree conversion list at a 35.5% clip. Florida also had five of the top 10 on the list of properly predicted “Empty Nester” sellers.”  

Top Predicted Markets for Retirees	% Of Correctly Predicted Listings (Dec. 21-Dec. 22)
The Villages, Fla.	35.5%
Punta Gorda, Fla.	24.8%
Homosassa Springs, Fla.	24.5%
Prescott Valley-Prescott, Ariz.	24.2%
Sebastian-Vero Beach, Fla.	24.1%
Ocala, Fla.	23.6%
Hot Springs, Ark.	22.9%
Naples-Marco Island, Fla.	21.9%
North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, Fla.	21.0%
Lake Havasu City-Kingman, Ariz.	20.8%

Top Predicted Markets for Empty Nesters	% Of Correctly Predicted Listings (Dec. 21-Dec. 22)
Santa Rosa-Petaluma, Calif.	27.2%
Homosassa Springs, Fla.	23.5%
Lake Havasu City-Kingman, Ariz.	22.0%
Punta Gorda, Fla.	21.9%
Prescott Valley-Prescott, Ariz.	20.2%
Myrtle Beach-Conway-North Myrtle Beach, S.C.-N.C.	20.1%
North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, Fla.	19.6%
Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, Fla.	19.2%
Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, Fla.	19.2%
Hattiesburg, Miss.	18.9%

Gamble pointed out the most recent National Association of Realtors Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers shared that 8% of all sellers from June 2021 to June 2022 moved for retirement reasons. AARP also reports 10,000 Americans are turning 65 each day.

While the nSkope Predictive Analytics Report shines a light on the older demographics, families with school-aged children are expected to continue to lead the sales funnel in the next 12 months with 23.5% of all listings. Those with at least one child 18-24 living at home and young families with children ages 6-and-under are projected to add another 15.8% and 6.4%, respectively, of all listings over that same period. But those without children living at home combine for nearly 32% of projected listings.

Top Profiles	Profile Definition	% Of All National Predicted Sales Over Next 12 Months	Top 10 Most Predicted Markets by % for Profile (Dec. 2022-Dec. 2023)
School-aged Family	A household representing a family with children (age 7-17)	23.5%	McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, Texas67.0%Provo-Orem, Utah62.7%Logan, Utah-Idaho54.8%El Paso, Texas53.1%Merced, Calif.51.0%Visalia, Calif.49.0%Hanford-Corcoran, Calif.48.5%Ogden-Clearfield, Utah47.7%Salt Lake City, Utah45.5%Idaho Falls, Idaho43.4%
Family	A household representing a family with at least one child (age 18-24) living at home	15.8%	Hilton Head -Bluffton, S.C.23.0%Bend, Ore.22.4%Chico, Calif.21.5%Yuba City, Calif.21.4%Vallejo, Calif.21.1%Cleveland, Tenn.21.1%Houma-Thibodaux, La.20.8%Napa, Calif.20.8%Victoria, Texas20.6%Albany-Lebanon, Ore.20.5%
Empty Nesters	A household with at least one adult (ages 45-64) and no children living in the home	10.2%	Punta Gorda, Fla.20.4%Homosassa Springs, Fla.19.5%Roanoke, Va.18.4%Myrtle Beach-Conway-North Myrtle Beach, S.C.-N.C.18.0%North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, Fla.18.0%Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, Fla.17.2%Naples-Marco Island, Fla.17.1%Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, Fla.17.1%Sebastian-Vero Beach, Fla.16.8%Pittsfield, Mass.16.7%
Singles	A household that has one adult (age 35-64)	8.7%	Missoula, Mont.22.6%Manhattan, Kas.20.4%Great Falls, Mont.18.8%Topeka, Kan.17.8%Pittsburgh, Pa.17.0%Buffalo-Cheektowaga, N.Y.16.1%Lawrence, Kan.15.7%Albany-Schenectady-Troy, N.Y.15.3%Fargo, ND-Minn.15.0%Rapid City, S.D.14.9%Duluth, MN-Wis.14.9%
Retirees	A household with one or two adults (65-and-older) and no children living at home	7.5%	Punta Gorda, Fla.22.9%Homosassa Springs, Fla.22.8%Naples-Marco Island, Fla.22.3%Sebastian-Vero Beach, Fla.21.5%Prescott Valley-Prescott, Ariz.21.5%Hot Springs, Ark.21.3%North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, Fla.20.4%Myrtle Beach-Conway-North Myrtle Beach, S.C.-N.C.19.3%Cape Coral-Fort Myers, Fla.18.2%Santa Fe, N.M.17.6%
Young Family	A household with children (6-and-under)	6.4%	Binghamton, N.Y.10.8%Elmira, N.Y.10.6%Charleston, W.Va.10.6%Williamsport, Pa.10.5%Jonesboro, Ark.10.3%Saginaw, Mich.10.2%Fort Smith, Ark.-Okla.10.2%Jackson, Mich.10.1%Auburn-Opelika, Ala.9.9%Monroe, La.9.9%Midland, Mich.9.9%
Couple	Household with two adults (ages 35-and-under) and no children	5.4%	San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, Calif.10.8%Fargo, ND-MN9.6%San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, Calif.9.6%Madison, Wis.9.4%Grand Forks, N.D.-Minn.9.0%Pittsfield, Mass.8.7%Trenton-Princeton, N.J.8.6%Jacksonville, N.C.8.6%Weirton-Steubenville, W.Va.-Ohio8.5%Wheeling, W.Va.-Ohio8.3%

nSkope, which reviewed homes in more than 16,000 U.S. ZIP codes, utilized proprietary algorithms enhanced by artificial intelligence to analyze over 300 data points and identify patterns and correlations, correctly predicted 8.1% of all its predicted listings from December 2021-December 2022. 

Decatur, Ill., was the most successfully predicted market. nSkope projected 2,024 Decatur homes last December that would come on the market over a 12-month period. Of those, 22.9% (463) did so.  

Rank	Top 5 Most Accurate MSAs	# of Properties in MSA	Predicted in December 2021	Converted by December 2022	% Accurate
1	Decatur, IL	35,500	2,024	463	22.9%
2	Kalamazoo-Portage, MI	105,952	7,538	1,328	17.6%
3	Jacksonville, NC	48,214	8,972	1,171	13.1%
4	Pueblo, CO	55,871	6,545	691	10.6%
5	Colorado Springs, CO	205,255	31,867	3,262	10.2%

“Decatur is a great example of how predictive analytics can be effective,” Gamble said. “We reviewed the ZIP codes in the market and reduced the size of potential listings down to a very manageable number. A brokerage or large team that focused almost exclusively on this pool of prospective clients would have likely been much more successful than those who tried to be in front of all 102,000 households. Remember, the likelihood is that the majority of these potential listers are already known by an agent. They just haven’t been marketed to.

“In an age where an extraordinary lead-to-capture rate is less than two percent, the evolution of predictive analytics, which are available at ZIP code levels, can be a difference maker in an industry with already tight margins,” Gamble continued. “Most brokerages and large teams spend significant time, energy and dollars to attract sellers. But they do so blindly. Predictive analytics allows them to focus on potential clients with the highest probability of listing their home in the foreseeable future. We therefore allow marketing initiatives to be dramatically more effective and cost efficient. As competition for listings becomes exceptionally fierce, being in front of this group as early as possible should pay dividends.”

The below charts show the percentage of listings predicted to come on the market by December 2023 by population size.

Markets Under 100,000 Population	Number of Predicted Homes	Percentage of Properties Predicted to List (Dec. 2022-Dec. 2023)
Casper, WY	3,023	13.7%
Hinesville, GA	2,811	12.0%
Corvallis, OR	4,158	11.6%
Columbus, IN	4,144	11.5%
Carson City, NV	2,145	10.3%
Pocatello, ID	2,021	9.5%
Mobile, AL	10,706	9.2%
Kokomo, IN	3,692	9.2%
Grants Pass, OR	2,804	9.2%
Rome, GA	4,835	8.9%

Markets 100,000-250,000 Population	Number of Predicted Homes	Percentage of Properties Predicted to List (Dec. 2022-Dec. 2023)
Jacksonville, NC	9,188	17.0%
St. George, UT	7,479	15.7%
Daphne-Fairhope-Foley, AL	11,898	15.5%
Gainesville, GA	16,694	15.0%
California-Lexington Park, MD	4,664	14.9%
Grand Junction, CO	7,249	14.8%
Longview, WA	4,902	14.5%
Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers, AR	19,789	13.9%
Midland, TX	7,730	13.9%
Charlottesville, VA	10,520	13.8%

Markets 250,000-500,000 Population	Number of Predicted Homes	Percentage of Properties Predicted to List (Dec. 2022-Dec. 2023)
Greeley, CO	25,249	17.6%
Fort Collins, CO	22,930	16.6%
Boulder, CO	18,659	15.8%
Savannah, GA	15,039	14.5%
Naples-Marco Island, FL	22,461	14.2%
Crestview-Fort Walton Beach-Destin, FL	13,680	14.0%
Reno, NV	19,085	14.0%
Wilmington, NC	12,888	13.8%
Kennewick-Richland, WA	11,326	13.0%
Cedar Rapids, IA	13,523	13.0%

Markets 500,000-750,000 Population	Number of Predicted Homes	Percentage of Properties Predicted to List (Dec. 2022-Dec. 2023)
Provo-Orem, UT	26,669	17.2%
Des Moines-West Des Moines, IA	37,392	15.8%
Ogden-Clearfield, UT	19,988	15.1%
Durham-Chapel Hill, NC	49,315	14.8%
Port St. Lucie, FL	25,845	13.4%
Madison, WI	24,795	12.6%
Spokane-Spokane Valley, WA	16,366	12.5%
Fayetteville, NC	27,404	12.5%
Modesto, CA	17,485	12.1%
Myrtle Beach-Conway-North Myrtle Beach, SC-NC	20,408	11.8%

Markets 750,000-1 Million Population	Number of Predicted Homes	Percentage of Properties Predicted to List (Dec. 2022-Dec. 2023)
Colorado Springs, CO	36,317	16.6%
Charleston-North Charleston, SC	31,532	15.5%
Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL	38,732	14.1%
Omaha-Council Bluffs, NE-IA	36,814	12.9%
Boise City, ID	25,355	12.9%
Worcester, MA-CT	33,096	12.8%
North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL	42,675	12.5%
Oxnard-Thousand Oaks-Ventura, CA	26,733	12.4%
Bridgeport-Stamford-Norwalk, CT	29,292	12.4%
Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL	25,277	12.0%

Markets 1-2 Million Population	Number of Predicted Homes	Percentage of Properties Predicted to List (Dec. 2022-Dec. 2023)
Salt Lake City, UT	43,686	16.1%
Raleigh-Cary, NC	73,978	15.3%
Jacksonville, FL	71,032	14.7%
Richmond, VA	52,489	13.8%
San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA	58,909	13.4%
Oklahoma City, OK	46,175	12.8%
Hartford-East Hartford-Middletown, CT	43,158	12.2%
Providence-Warwick, RI-MA	45,924	11.7%
Tucson, AZ	30,353	11.0%
Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN	41,938	11.0%

Markets 2-4 Million Population	Number of Predicted Homes	Percentage of Properties Predicted to List (Dec. 2022-Dec. 2023)
Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX	103,247	17.2%
Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, CO	112,666	16.8%
Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA	94,558	14.8%
Nashville-Davidson--Murfreesboro--Franklin, TN	89,369	14.3%
Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI	92,556	13.7%
San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA	96,160	13.6%
Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD	86,223	13.4%
Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC	104,173	13.4%
Indianapolis-Carmel-Anderson, IN	83,490	13.0%
Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL	93,707	12.9%

Markets 4-Or-More Million Population	Number of Predicted Homes	Percentage of Properties Predicted to List (Dec. 2022-Dec. 2023)
Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV	243,285	15.4%
Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX	260,829	14.5%
Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA	229,490	14.1%
San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA	136,345	13.5%
Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ	169,880	13.3%
Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX	220,443	12.9%
Boston-Cambridge-Newton, MA-NH	139,360	12.1%
Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA	121,432	11.9%
Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI	256,290	11.2%
Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL	104,318	10.6%

Methodology: More than 128 million households were included in a December 1, 2022 report that utilized more than 300 data points to discover which properties would likely come on the market. It also reviewed the homes it projected would be listed in December 2021 to determine which actually came on the market by December 2022.

About TKI

TKI was founded in 2002 and has worked with such clients as Comcast, QVC, Coldwell Banker Real Estate, Realogy, Cox, CTAM and the NFL. The software development company specializes in lead generation brand asset management and marketing automation. For more information contact https://tkinteractive.com.

Media Contacts:

For TKI
David Siroty

(908) 337-5865