Real Estate Marketing & Beyond
TKI, a software development company with more than 20 years of real estate experience, today unveiled its quarterly nSkope Predictive Analytics Report that shows that “Empty Nesters” and retirees may have a significant impact on the U.S. real estate market over the next 12 months.
The report, which predicts a total of 5.7 million homes that have a higher probability to come on the market over the next 12 months, found that older Americans may make up a sizeable portion of those who list their homes:
“With a projected slowdown in 2023 sales, it is critically important to understand the lifestyle triggers that will impact listings,” said Tom Gamble, co-founder and CEO of TKI. “Older families and Americans should not be forgotten. They make up a sizeable pool of potential sellers and should be marketed to. Obviously, growing families will always be sales drivers, but the report shows that a sizeable percentage of potential sellers are not in this group. They are likely not looking to move up or be in better school districts. This is especially true in numerous Florida and Arizona markets, along with places like Myrtle Beach and Santa Rosa where the older age groups are over-indexing.”
Looking back at December 2021-December 2022, seven of the top 10 highest percentage of correctly predicted listings for retirees were in Florida. The Villages led the retiree conversion list at a 35.5% clip. Florida also had five of the top 10 on the list of properly predicted “Empty Nester” sellers.”
| Top Predicted Markets for Retirees | % Of Correctly Predicted Listings (Dec. 21-Dec. 22) |
| The Villages, Fla. | 35.5% |
| Punta Gorda, Fla. | 24.8% |
| Homosassa Springs, Fla. | 24.5% |
| Prescott Valley-Prescott, Ariz. | 24.2% |
| Sebastian-Vero Beach, Fla. | 24.1% |
| Ocala, Fla. | 23.6% |
| Hot Springs, Ark. | 22.9% |
| Naples-Marco Island, Fla. | 21.9% |
| North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, Fla. | 21.0% |
| Lake Havasu City-Kingman, Ariz. | 20.8% |
| Top Predicted Markets for Empty Nesters | % Of Correctly Predicted Listings (Dec. 21-Dec. 22) |
| Santa Rosa-Petaluma, Calif. | 27.2% |
| Homosassa Springs, Fla. | 23.5% |
| Lake Havasu City-Kingman, Ariz. | 22.0% |
| Punta Gorda, Fla. | 21.9% |
| Prescott Valley-Prescott, Ariz. | 20.2% |
| Myrtle Beach-Conway-North Myrtle Beach, S.C.-N.C. | 20.1% |
| North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, Fla. | 19.6% |
| Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, Fla. | 19.2% |
| Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, Fla. | 19.2% |
| Hattiesburg, Miss. | 18.9% |
Gamble pointed out the most recent National Association of Realtors Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers shared that 8% of all sellers from June 2021 to June 2022 moved for retirement reasons. AARP also reports 10,000 Americans are turning 65 each day.
While the nSkope Predictive Analytics Report shines a light on the older demographics, families with school-aged children are expected to continue to lead the sales funnel in the next 12 months with 23.5% of all listings. Those with at least one child 18-24 living at home and young families with children ages 6-and-under are projected to add another 15.8% and 6.4%, respectively, of all listings over that same period. But those without children living at home combine for nearly 32% of projected listings.
| Top Profiles | Profile Definition | % Of All National Predicted Sales Over Next 12 Months | Top 10 Most Predicted Markets by % for Profile (Dec. 2022-Dec. 2023) |
| School-aged Family | A household representing a family with children (age 7-17) | 23.5% | McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, Texas67.0%Provo-Orem, Utah62.7%Logan, Utah-Idaho54.8%El Paso, Texas53.1%Merced, Calif.51.0%Visalia, Calif.49.0%Hanford-Corcoran, Calif.48.5%Ogden-Clearfield, Utah47.7%Salt Lake City, Utah45.5%Idaho Falls, Idaho43.4% |
| Family | A household representing a family with at least one child (age 18-24) living at home | 15.8% | Hilton Head -Bluffton, S.C.23.0%Bend, Ore.22.4%Chico, Calif.21.5%Yuba City, Calif.21.4%Vallejo, Calif.21.1%Cleveland, Tenn.21.1%Houma-Thibodaux, La.20.8%Napa, Calif.20.8%Victoria, Texas20.6%Albany-Lebanon, Ore.20.5% |
| Empty Nesters | A household with at least one adult (ages 45-64) and no children living in the home | 10.2% | Punta Gorda, Fla.20.4%Homosassa Springs, Fla.19.5%Roanoke, Va.18.4%Myrtle Beach-Conway-North Myrtle Beach, S.C.-N.C.18.0%North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, Fla.18.0%Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, Fla.17.2%Naples-Marco Island, Fla.17.1%Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, Fla.17.1%Sebastian-Vero Beach, Fla.16.8%Pittsfield, Mass.16.7% |
| Singles | A household that has one adult (age 35-64) | 8.7% | Missoula, Mont.22.6%Manhattan, Kas.20.4%Great Falls, Mont.18.8%Topeka, Kan.17.8%Pittsburgh, Pa.17.0%Buffalo-Cheektowaga, N.Y.16.1%Lawrence, Kan.15.7%Albany-Schenectady-Troy, N.Y.15.3%Fargo, ND-Minn.15.0%Rapid City, S.D.14.9%Duluth, MN-Wis.14.9% |
| Retirees | A household with one or two adults (65-and-older) and no children living at home | 7.5% | Punta Gorda, Fla.22.9%Homosassa Springs, Fla.22.8%Naples-Marco Island, Fla.22.3%Sebastian-Vero Beach, Fla.21.5%Prescott Valley-Prescott, Ariz.21.5%Hot Springs, Ark.21.3%North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, Fla.20.4%Myrtle Beach-Conway-North Myrtle Beach, S.C.-N.C.19.3%Cape Coral-Fort Myers, Fla.18.2%Santa Fe, N.M.17.6% |
| Young Family | A household with children (6-and-under) | 6.4% | Binghamton, N.Y.10.8%Elmira, N.Y.10.6%Charleston, W.Va.10.6%Williamsport, Pa.10.5%Jonesboro, Ark.10.3%Saginaw, Mich.10.2%Fort Smith, Ark.-Okla.10.2%Jackson, Mich.10.1%Auburn-Opelika, Ala.9.9%Monroe, La.9.9%Midland, Mich.9.9% |
| Couple | Household with two adults (ages 35-and-under) and no children | 5.4% | San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, Calif.10.8%Fargo, ND-MN9.6%San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, Calif.9.6%Madison, Wis.9.4%Grand Forks, N.D.-Minn.9.0%Pittsfield, Mass.8.7%Trenton-Princeton, N.J.8.6%Jacksonville, N.C.8.6%Weirton-Steubenville, W.Va.-Ohio8.5%Wheeling, W.Va.-Ohio8.3% |
nSkope, which reviewed homes in more than 16,000 U.S. ZIP codes, utilized proprietary algorithms enhanced by artificial intelligence to analyze over 300 data points and identify patterns and correlations, correctly predicted 8.1% of all its predicted listings from December 2021-December 2022.
Decatur, Ill., was the most successfully predicted market. nSkope projected 2,024 Decatur homes last December that would come on the market over a 12-month period. Of those, 22.9% (463) did so.
| Rank | Top 5 Most Accurate MSAs | # of Properties in MSA | Predicted in December 2021 | Converted by December 2022 | % Accurate |
| 1 | Decatur, IL | 35,500 | 2,024 | 463 | 22.9% |
| 2 | Kalamazoo-Portage, MI | 105,952 | 7,538 | 1,328 | 17.6% |
| 3 | Jacksonville, NC | 48,214 | 8,972 | 1,171 | 13.1% |
| 4 | Pueblo, CO | 55,871 | 6,545 | 691 | 10.6% |
| 5 | Colorado Springs, CO | 205,255 | 31,867 | 3,262 | 10.2% |
“Decatur is a great example of how predictive analytics can be effective,” Gamble said. “We reviewed the ZIP codes in the market and reduced the size of potential listings down to a very manageable number. A brokerage or large team that focused almost exclusively on this pool of prospective clients would have likely been much more successful than those who tried to be in front of all 102,000 households. Remember, the likelihood is that the majority of these potential listers are already known by an agent. They just haven’t been marketed to.
“In an age where an extraordinary lead-to-capture rate is less than two percent, the evolution of predictive analytics, which are available at ZIP code levels, can be a difference maker in an industry with already tight margins,” Gamble continued. “Most brokerages and large teams spend significant time, energy and dollars to attract sellers. But they do so blindly. Predictive analytics allows them to focus on potential clients with the highest probability of listing their home in the foreseeable future. We therefore allow marketing initiatives to be dramatically more effective and cost efficient. As competition for listings becomes exceptionally fierce, being in front of this group as early as possible should pay dividends.”
The below charts show the percentage of listings predicted to come on the market by December 2023 by population size.
| Markets Under 100,000 Population | Number of Predicted Homes | Percentage of Properties Predicted to List (Dec. 2022-Dec. 2023) |
| Casper, WY | 3,023 | 13.7% |
| Hinesville, GA | 2,811 | 12.0% |
| Corvallis, OR | 4,158 | 11.6% |
| Columbus, IN | 4,144 | 11.5% |
| Carson City, NV | 2,145 | 10.3% |
| Pocatello, ID | 2,021 | 9.5% |
| Mobile, AL | 10,706 | 9.2% |
| Kokomo, IN | 3,692 | 9.2% |
| Grants Pass, OR | 2,804 | 9.2% |
| Rome, GA | 4,835 | 8.9% |
| Markets 100,000-250,000 Population | Number of Predicted Homes | Percentage of Properties Predicted to List (Dec. 2022-Dec. 2023) |
| Jacksonville, NC | 9,188 | 17.0% |
| St. George, UT | 7,479 | 15.7% |
| Daphne-Fairhope-Foley, AL | 11,898 | 15.5% |
| Gainesville, GA | 16,694 | 15.0% |
| California-Lexington Park, MD | 4,664 | 14.9% |
| Grand Junction, CO | 7,249 | 14.8% |
| Longview, WA | 4,902 | 14.5% |
| Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers, AR | 19,789 | 13.9% |
| Midland, TX | 7,730 | 13.9% |
| Charlottesville, VA | 10,520 | 13.8% |
| Markets 250,000-500,000 Population | Number of Predicted Homes | Percentage of Properties Predicted to List (Dec. 2022-Dec. 2023) |
| Greeley, CO | 25,249 | 17.6% |
| Fort Collins, CO | 22,930 | 16.6% |
| Boulder, CO | 18,659 | 15.8% |
| Savannah, GA | 15,039 | 14.5% |
| Naples-Marco Island, FL | 22,461 | 14.2% |
| Crestview-Fort Walton Beach-Destin, FL | 13,680 | 14.0% |
| Reno, NV | 19,085 | 14.0% |
| Wilmington, NC | 12,888 | 13.8% |
| Kennewick-Richland, WA | 11,326 | 13.0% |
| Cedar Rapids, IA | 13,523 | 13.0% |
| Markets 500,000-750,000 Population | Number of Predicted Homes | Percentage of Properties Predicted to List (Dec. 2022-Dec. 2023) |
| Provo-Orem, UT | 26,669 | 17.2% |
| Des Moines-West Des Moines, IA | 37,392 | 15.8% |
| Ogden-Clearfield, UT | 19,988 | 15.1% |
| Durham-Chapel Hill, NC | 49,315 | 14.8% |
| Port St. Lucie, FL | 25,845 | 13.4% |
| Madison, WI | 24,795 | 12.6% |
| Spokane-Spokane Valley, WA | 16,366 | 12.5% |
| Fayetteville, NC | 27,404 | 12.5% |
| Modesto, CA | 17,485 | 12.1% |
| Myrtle Beach-Conway-North Myrtle Beach, SC-NC | 20,408 | 11.8% |
| Markets 750,000-1 Million Population | Number of Predicted Homes | Percentage of Properties Predicted to List (Dec. 2022-Dec. 2023) |
| Colorado Springs, CO | 36,317 | 16.6% |
| Charleston-North Charleston, SC | 31,532 | 15.5% |
| Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL | 38,732 | 14.1% |
| Omaha-Council Bluffs, NE-IA | 36,814 | 12.9% |
| Boise City, ID | 25,355 | 12.9% |
| Worcester, MA-CT | 33,096 | 12.8% |
| North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL | 42,675 | 12.5% |
| Oxnard-Thousand Oaks-Ventura, CA | 26,733 | 12.4% |
| Bridgeport-Stamford-Norwalk, CT | 29,292 | 12.4% |
| Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL | 25,277 | 12.0% |
| Markets 1-2 Million Population | Number of Predicted Homes | Percentage of Properties Predicted to List (Dec. 2022-Dec. 2023) |
| Salt Lake City, UT | 43,686 | 16.1% |
| Raleigh-Cary, NC | 73,978 | 15.3% |
| Jacksonville, FL | 71,032 | 14.7% |
| Richmond, VA | 52,489 | 13.8% |
| San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA | 58,909 | 13.4% |
| Oklahoma City, OK | 46,175 | 12.8% |
| Hartford-East Hartford-Middletown, CT | 43,158 | 12.2% |
| Providence-Warwick, RI-MA | 45,924 | 11.7% |
| Tucson, AZ | 30,353 | 11.0% |
| Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN | 41,938 | 11.0% |
| Markets 2-4 Million Population | Number of Predicted Homes | Percentage of Properties Predicted to List (Dec. 2022-Dec. 2023) |
| Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX | 103,247 | 17.2% |
| Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, CO | 112,666 | 16.8% |
| Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA | 94,558 | 14.8% |
| Nashville-Davidson--Murfreesboro--Franklin, TN | 89,369 | 14.3% |
| Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI | 92,556 | 13.7% |
| San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA | 96,160 | 13.6% |
| Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD | 86,223 | 13.4% |
| Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC | 104,173 | 13.4% |
| Indianapolis-Carmel-Anderson, IN | 83,490 | 13.0% |
| Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL | 93,707 | 12.9% |
| Markets 4-Or-More Million Population | Number of Predicted Homes | Percentage of Properties Predicted to List (Dec. 2022-Dec. 2023) |
| Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV | 243,285 | 15.4% |
| Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX | 260,829 | 14.5% |
| Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA | 229,490 | 14.1% |
| San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA | 136,345 | 13.5% |
| Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ | 169,880 | 13.3% |
| Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX | 220,443 | 12.9% |
| Boston-Cambridge-Newton, MA-NH | 139,360 | 12.1% |
| Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA | 121,432 | 11.9% |
| Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI | 256,290 | 11.2% |
| Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL | 104,318 | 10.6% |
Methodology: More than 128 million households were included in a December 1, 2022 report that utilized more than 300 data points to discover which properties would likely come on the market. It also reviewed the homes it projected would be listed in December 2021 to determine which actually came on the market by December 2022.
About TKI
TKI was founded in 2002 and has worked with such clients as Comcast, QVC, Coldwell Banker Real Estate, Realogy, Cox, CTAM and the NFL. The software development company specializes in lead generation brand asset management and marketing automation. For more information contact https://tkinteractive.com.
Media Contacts:
For TKI
David Siroty
(908) 337-5865
