4 Reasons I’m Still Bullish on Boise Real Estate Market

You might have thought I was off my rocker if I told you Boise, ID was the fastest growing real estate market in the country over the last 2-4 years. According to the most recent data from Zillow, median home prices in Boise are up 70.09% over 4 years and 62.66% over 3 years, which both rank #1 among the top 100 metropolitan areas in the US.

This has prompted many in the industry to regard Boise as the nation’s hottest housing market. Many experts have pointed out that Boise’s real estate market is overpriced compared to household income, with some going as far as to predict that prices might drop like a hot potato this year. However, there’s plenty of data to suggest that Boise’s market has room for growth. Here’s four reasons to still be bullish on Boise.

Migration Trends

One of the main factors contributing to Boise’s housing market growth has been a heavy inbound migration flow. These new residents are fleeing the more expensive housing markets of the west coast. According to United Van Lines most recent moving study, Idaho recorded the 9th highest inbound move percentage (60%) out of all the lower 48 States.

State	Inbound Move %
Vermont	74%
South Dakota	69%
South Carolina	63%
West Virginia	63%
Florida	62%
Alabama	62%
Tennessee	62%
Oregon	61%
Idaho	60%
Rhode Island	59%

Many of the top 10 inbound states are absorbing residents from expensive housing markets in the northeast and west coast.  Look for this trend to continue in 2022 as inflation pushes many remote workers to flee to more affordable housing markets.  

Inventory Growth

While many of the nation’s top metros dealt with housing inventory shortages, Boise has risen to meet the challenge of a growing population.  Out of the top 100 metros in the US, Boise saw the largest increase in for-sale inventory year-over-year (+42.61%) by far and the second largest increase in total sales year-over-year (+45.18%).  

Metro	Total Inventory 2020-12-31	Total Inventory 2021-12-31	1 YR. % Change
Boise City, ID	2,260	3,223	42.61%
Stockton, CA	1,129	1,302	15.32%
Austin, TX	7,288	8,350	14.57%
Tucson, AZ	3,548	3,693	4.09%
Milwaukee, WI	3,923	4,026	2.63%
Ogden, UT	1,501	1,533	2.13%

Metro	Total Sales 2020-12-31	Total Sales 2021-12-31	1 YR. % Change
Provo, UT	713	1,147	60.87%
Boise City, ID	1,213	1,761	45.18%
Fort Collins, CO	725	1,034	42.62%
Urban Honolulu, HI	908	1,236	36.12%
Little Rock, AR	1,160	1,426	22.93%

The new construction industry is booming in Boise thanks to a large amount of developable land.  The fact that total sales has been keeping pace with growing inventory proves that houses really are flying off the market in Boise. 

Household Income

Many housing market experts have cited Boise’s large price to income ratio as evidence that Boise’s market growth cannot sustain.  While it’s true that Boise’s price to income ratio of 8.23% is 5th highest among the top 100 US Metros, it’s also true that Boise’s median household income has been among the fastest growing in the US as well.  

According to the most recent data from US Bureau of Economic Analysis, Boise saw the second largest increase in median household income (+9.74%) out of the top 100 US metros in the last 2 years behind only Charleston, SC.

Metro	2020 Median income	2019 Median Income	% Change
Charleston-North Charleston, SC	$70,505	$63,649	10.77%
Boise City, ID	$66,466	$60,568	9.74%
Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA	$70,954	$65,121	8.96%
Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL	$54,533	$50,360	8.29%
Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA	$94,027	$86,856	8.26%
Albuquerque, NM	$58,512	$54,072	8.21%

So despite the higher-than-average income to price ratio in Boise’s housing market, wage growth suggests that there could be more gas in the tank for Boise.  If the prevailing migration trends continue in 2022, look for more high wage earners to settle in Boise’s metro area, pushing the median sales prices even higher.  

Culture

If you thought Boise was all national parks and no play, think again.  Boise is the cultural center of Idaho and is full of fun entertainment and cultural fares from across the globe.  You can opt for the fine dining experience at Chandler’s or go for the famous Mexican Steak House Barbocoa’s. 

In conclusion, based on all this data, Boise’s market growth is far from a fluke. In fact, if migration patterns and median income trends remain the same, it’s growth is likely far from over. Look for median sale prices to climb even further in 2022, as inflation pushes up the cost of new construction.

Join Zach this week as he takes a trip to Nashville TN and Dolly Partons land, median household analysis and the best places to wine and dine. Market Watch with Zach Parker #Nashville.