Could 2022 Be Another Record Year For The Dallas Real Estate Market?

The real estate market in Dallas, TX took a big leap in 2021, as median home prices jumped +13.55% over the past year.  The median sale price for the Dallas metro is now $401,330 after hovering between $337K and $350K for the previous 3 years.  

Both the current median home price and the total volume of sales in 2021 set new records for the Dallas-Fort Worth metro area.  Some are predicting the Dallas housing market to cool in 2022 due to higher prices and rising interest rates.  However, based on the most recent housing data and migration trends, it looks like there still is room for growth in Dallas.

Here’s a few reasons why Dallas might have another record year in 2022.

Record Low For-Sale Inventory

Dallas’ total for sale inventory is at a 4 year low according to Zillow’s most recent data.  The current inventory of 19,892 homes is down -24.04% year-over-year and down -42.39% from 2 years ago.  This tight supply is one of the primary reasons sales prices hit record levels over the past year, and it looks like that trend will continue in 2022.

	Total Inventory 2022	Total Inventory 2021	1 Year Change %	Total Inventory 2020	2 Year Change %
Dallas-Fort Worth, TX	19,892	26,188	-24.04%	34,526	-42.39%

Stephen Lewis, owner of Ink Realty Group in Dallas, reported on a home that received 35 offers out of 95 showings last weekend.  That house, listed at $450K, sold well over $500K.  This is typical of a market with tight supply, and will likely be the norm at least through the first half of 2022.  

Look for inventory to continue to contract in Dallas over the next 12 months.  Current migration trends suggest that Texas will continue to add new residents as it has done in the past few years.  Austin has absorbed a larger margin of these new residents in 3 past years, which has caused its median home price ($532K) to soar by 48.77% during that time span.  The relatively low price of homes in Dallas will likely attract many of those moving to Texas in 2022. 

Texas Migration Trends

Texas’ large influx of new residents has been a big news story in recent years.  Based on the most recent US Census data and migration studies, that trend continued in 2021.  According to United Van Lines National Movers Study of 2021, Texas saw the second largest number of inbound moves in the US and a 54% inbound move percentage.  

Look for this trend to continue through 2022.  As interest rates rise this year, the relatively low home prices in Texas will continue to attract new residents, especially among those in the work-from-home contingent.  This will put additional demand pressure on the already tight supply of homes in Dallas, pushing prices even higher.  

Google Trends Data

Based on the most recent Google Trends data, the number of people searching for homes in Dallas has never been greater.  Searches for the keyword ‘dallas homes for sale’ averaged 4,806 per week in 2021 and has steadily increased over the past 5 years.  So far in 2022, that number sits at a record 4,960 searches per week.

Total Weekly Searches in Google	dallas homes for sale	best places to live in texas
2022	4,960	8,260
2021	4,806	8,132
2020	4,512	8,408
2019	3,869	5,778
2018	4,390	7,044
2017	4,002	5,245

The number of people searching for the best places to live in Texas is also at record highs in the past few years, which provides further evidence that the Texas’ inbound migration trend will continue in 2022. 

Culture

Besides the financial benefits of living in Texas, one of the reasons the Dallas metro has so much appeal is the vibrant culture it offers.  Dallas is known to be a town for foodies, offering up some of the best barbecue in the country.  Places like Cattleack BBQ are famous statewide for their smoked meats, but if you think Dallas’ culinary offerings end at barbecue, think again.  You’ll find international fares from all over the world in Dallas, such as those offered by Sushi Kushi and Anise, a new Mediterranean restaurant in the Village development.  

You may know Dallas as one of the best bar towns in the US, which it still is, but it also has a thriving art scene.  The Dallas Museum of Art and the Perot Museum of Nature and Science have enough galleries to occupy a whole day, and these are just a few of the dozens of museums in the city.

In conclusion, it appears that all systems are ‘go’ for Dallas to experience another record year of market growth in 2022.  Look for home price growth to accelerate in Dallas in 2022 as prices decelerate through most parts of the US.  Median home prices could rise 15-20% in Dallas this year thanks to record low sales inventory, inflation, and inbound migration numbers. 

Join Zach this week as he travels to the Low Country Charleston South Carolina and discusses median home prices, brokerage firms and the best places to dine in an eat.