Modern communication networks have effectively shrunk the size of the planet. Information can now travel in seconds rather than the hours, days or even weeks it took data to cross the globe just a couple of generations ago.
This rapid flow of information means that a “bargain” never lasts for long in today’s financial markets. Once a promising investment opportunity has been identified, the money flows that direction until the asset price reaches (or often exceeds) perceived value equilibrium.
When you throw in ultra-low interest rates and sluggish macroeconomic conditions in the US and Europe holding bond yields down and central bank stimuli overheating global equity indices, investors cannot find many low-risk, reasonable-return investments today.
Astute investors understand that the beginning of an interest rate cycle is not the time to be investing in bonds and that that the risk-reward ratio is simply not attractive with stocks at historic highs on the strength of smoke-and-mirrors political promises.
Fortunately, the alternative investment class has grown notably over the last decade or two to include private equity, futures, commodities/precious metals and real estate. Recent surveys also suggest that real estate is the fastest growing category of alternative investment, with sovereign investment funds worldwide projecting an almost 10% increase in real estate investments in their alternatives portfolio over the next five years (from 38% to over 41% of total alternatives portfolio).
Overview of 2017 US Housing Market by Region
Although millions of Millennials have been living with their parents for the last few years, many financial analysts say this trend is winding down. They argue that Millennials and even older Gen-Xers are just now reaching prime home buying ages, and that many of these now not-so-young adults will be moving into their own places over the next few years.
The analysts argue this bodes well for the US housing market, especially as the ongoing economic recovery is also producing more jobs and driving up wages.
Most well-known housing market analysts expect housing prices nationwide to be up by at least 3% in 2017. January clocked in with a 3.3% annual rate increase in existing home prices, so we are on pace to meet that projection. That said, growth will vary dramatically by region and by city, with many second-tier cities leading the way as growth slows down in major markets like San Francisco, LA and Boston.
With notable exceptions like NYC, housing price growth in the Eastern US and the Midwest is expected to lag growth in the other areas of the country listed below.
Southeast
The Southeastern US has been experiencing solid growth in home values for almost a decade. According to Zillow, Orlando, Florida is one of the hottest cities in the country, and will see home prices increase by an average of 5.7% in 2017. Knoxville and Nashville, Tennessee appear on Zillow’s top ten list with a projected home price growth of 4.4% and 4.3%, respectively.
Southwest
Utah is a housing hot spot in the Southwest part of the country. Zillow anticipates home prices in both Salt Lake City and Provo will move up by 4.3% in 2017. Denver is also seeing strong demand for housing, with home prices expected to climb by 3.2% this year.
West
Seattle continues to be an economic powerhouse and a magnet for new residents. Zillow is projecting that home prices in Seattle increase by 5.6% in 2017. Portland is just 170 miles south of Seattle, and Zillow is projecting housing prices move up by 5.2% in 2017 in this dynamic city. Sacramento, the capital of the Golden State, is also experiencing a real estate boom these days, with home prices expected to appreciate by 4.8% this year.
Medium to Long-term Investments Make Sense for Most Baby Boomers
Baby Boomers have different investment needs than earlier generations of retirees.
Up until the Great Recession, demographers and economists projected that most Baby Boomers would retire and move south much like the preceding generation. However, the stock market crash of 2008 decimated the retirement plans of many Baby Boomers as well as savaged their home values.
The net result is that a lot more Baby Boomers are working longer than they or the demographers expected to try and make ends meet. Related to this, an increasing number of boomers are staying in their family homes to remain near their jobs, children and grandkids.
Moreover, those Baby Boomers who are retiring are increasingly opting to stay in their homes rather than downsize. Part of the reason for this is their children (Millennials) have had a hard time finding decent jobs and moving out. Some surveys have suggested that 20% to 33% of the adult children of Baby Boomers are still living at home and one in three is still getting some kind of financial support.
These surveys also suggest that even when their children have moved out, BB parents want to have a big place for their kids and grandkids to come visit. For a large number of BBs, that means deciding to stay in the family home.
Whether you want to call it postponing retirement or reinventing it, it is clear that BBs have a different idea of how to spend their “golden years” than their parents and grandparents did. Given that pensions are disappearing, Social Security payments only cover a fraction of the cost of a middle-class lifestyle in a major city, and interest rates are so low, BBs have to think out of the box to support their “retirement”.
As mentioned above, many older Americans are choosing to stay in the workforce longer, but that’s not possible for everyone, and age does place limitations on the ability to work. Improvements in medical care also mean BBs can expect to live longer, so most can afford to take a longer-term perspective on their investments.
When you put all the pieces of the retirement puzzle together for BBs, a thoughtfully selected portfolio of real estate investments emerges as an ideal solution. No investment is risk free, but BBs who seek steady long-term income and appreciation have many low-risk real estate investment vehicles to choose from today.
About the author: Brad Walker is the CEO and Co-founder of Income&
