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nSKOPE CORRECTLY PREDICTED 34.8% OF ALL DECATUR, ILL. SALES OVER THE LAST YEAR

By RealtyBiz News | May 2, 2023

TKI, a software development company with more than 20 years of real estate experience and the creator of nSkope, a real estate listings prospect identification platform, today unveiled its quarterly nSkope Predictive Analytics Report showing that the nation’s older population missed projected home sales figures over the last year. nSkope predicted that empty nesters and retirees would generate a combined 19.9% of homes sold between March 2022-March 2023 but a review of data revealed they generated just 15.2% of predicted sales.

TKI

“Older Americans were not as active in listing their homes as we predicted over the last 12 months,” said Tom Gamble, co-founder and CEO of TKI. “Those 55 and older have the nation’s highest homeownership rate so any decline in sales from this demographic will impact inventory levels. We are projecting empty nesters and retirees to rebound somewhat and combine for 18.3% of all home sales over the next 12 months.”

Gamble cited U.S. Census reports indicating that people aged 65 and older have a homeownership rate of 79.0% followed closely by those aged 55 to 64 (75.7%). 

Key findings from the nSkope Predictive Analytics report compiled from a review of 355 metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) include:

Looking back at March 2022-March 2023: 

  • Empty nesters were predicted to account for 10.3% of listings in more than 20,000 studied ZIP codes, while retirees were expected to account for another 6.9%. Instead, only 9.3% of all sales were by empty nesters while retirees added another 5.9% of all sales.
  • Families with at least one child 18 to 24 years of age living at home were expected to make up 16.7% of all sales but finished the 12-month cycle with just 15.3%.
  • Singles, which were projected to make up 10.0% of all sales, over delivered at 11.6%.
  • Families with children ages 7 to 17 sold homes at the expected rate. They were projected to sell 21.5% of all homes and ended the 12-month period with 21.7% of all sales.
  • Decatur, Ill., was the nation’s most predicted market over the last 12 months with 34.8% of predicted listings becoming sales. Dothan, Ala. (29.8%) followed.
  • nSkope was accurate on 8.2% percent of the more than 6.5 million properties it predicted last March that might come on the market. 

Looking ahead at the next 12 months: 

  • Families with children ages 7 to 17 are predicted to account for 24.0% of all sales through March 2024. Families with at least one child aged 18 to 24 living at home are expected to drop to 15.8% of all sales over the next 12 months.
  • Empty nesters are expected to make up 10.3% of all sales through March 2024 with eight Florida markets projected to be above 15.5% of MSA sales in this demographic.
  • Retirees are projected to grow their share of sales to 8.0% over the next 12 months. Punta Gorda (19.0%) is one of four Florida markets in the top five most highly predicted MSAs for retirees.

The nSkope Predictive Analytics Report reviewed 355 MSAs around the nation. The nSkope tool utilizes proprietary algorithms enhanced by artificial intelligence to analyze over 300 data points that lead to predictions. Reviewing more than 73 million properties, nSkope has identified 10.9% that are predicted to come on the market through March 2024. nSkope also attaches a profile to each potential listing allowing clients the opportunity to effectively target market.

“Our clients are utilizing our data at ZIP code levels to learn which homeowners could become potential clients,” Gamble said. “They cross tabulate data to determine who might have been a ‘forgotten’ past client and assign the address and/or homeowner to the proper agent. Our clients also employ a variety of tactics from door knocking, email, phone campaigns, direct mail, and digital advertising to reach these potential clients. 

“Brokerages and teams with the proper marketing resources are able to target those with the best chance of becoming a listings client, reducing wasted advertising spend and time,” Gamble continued. “They are also able to create, or recreate, relationships often before that potential seller has made the decision to list.”

Top nSkope ProfilesProfile Definition% Predicted March ’22-March ’23% Accuracy March ’22-March ’23% Predicted March ’23-March ’24
School-aged FamilyA household representing a family with children (age 7-17)21.5%21.7%24.0%
FamilyA household representing a family with at least one child (age 18-24) living at home16.7%15.3%15.8%
SinglesA household that has one adult (age 35-64) 10.0%11.6%8.8%
Empty Nesters A household with at least one adult (ages 45-64) and no children living in the home 10.3%9.3%10.3%
CouplesHousehold with two adults (ages 35-and-under) and no children 6.4%6.9%7.7%
Young FamilyA household with children (6-and-under)6.0%6.6%7.1%
RetireesA household with one or two adults (65-plus) and no children living at home6.9%5.9%8.0%

Decatur, Ill., was the most successfully predicted market from March 2022-March 2023 with 684 of the projected 1,860 homes coming on the market within that time: 

RankTop 10 Most Accurate MSAs# of Properties in MSAPredicted in March 22 Converted by March 23% Accurate
1Decatur, Ill.35,9791,86068434.8%
2Dothan, Ala.44,3663,17494829.8%
3Kalamazoo/Portage, Mich.107,6168,5021,47517.4%
4Jacksonville, N.C.48,7317,62297912.8%
5Pueblo, Colo.46,8364,66547010.1%
6Colorado Springs, Colo.272,04131,0403,0729.9%
7Idaho Falls, Idaho44,9464,5564219.2%
8Springfield, Ill.2,480163159.2%
9Killeen/Temple, Texas115,61512,2361,0818.8%
10Valdosta, Ga.34,8772,7632448.8%

The nSkope Predictive Analytics Report looks forward through March 2024 to identify the top 10 most predicted MSAs for each major nSkope profile:

Top ProfilesProfile Definition% Of All National Predicted Sales Over Next 12 MonthsTop 10 Most Predicted Markets by % for Profile for MSAs with at least 150 correctly predicted sales (March ’22-March ’23)
School-aged FamilyA household representing a family with children (age 7-17)24.0%
McAllen/Edinburg/Mission, Texas66.0%Provo/Orem, Utah65.7%El Paso, Texas53.4%Merced, Calif.48.4%Idaho Falls, Idaho48.2%Ogden/Clearfield, Utah43.2%Salt Lake City, Utah42.7%Visalia, Calif.40.0%Bakersfield, Calif.38.3%St. George, Utah38.1%
FamilyA household representing a family with at least one child (age 18-24) living at home14.8%
Dalton, Ga.28.2%Abilene, Texas24.2%Niles, Mich.23.5%Virginia Beach/Norfolk/Newport News, Va./N.C.22.8%New Bern, N.C.22.6%La Crosse/Onalaska, Wis//Minn.21.8%Hickory/Lenoir/Morganton, N.C.21.3%Gainesville, Ga.21.2%Tyler, Texas21.1%Salem, Ore.21.1%
Empty Nesters A household with at least one adult (ages 45-64) and no children living in the home 10.3%
North Port/Sarasota/Bradenton, Fla.19.9%Naples/Marco Island, Fla.18.8%Palm Bay/Melbourne/Titusville, Fla.18.2%Punta Gorda, Fla.18.2%Sebastian/Vero Beach, Fla.17.6%Homosassa Springs, Fla.17.5%Myrtle Beach/Conway/North Myrtle Beach, S.C./N.C.17.4%Barnstable, Mass.17.0%Deltona/Daytona Beach/Ormond Beach, Fla.16.2%Panama City, Fla.15.6%
SinglesA household that has one adult (age 35-64) 8.8%
Missoula, Mont.23.9%Pittsburgh, Pa.23.6%Santa Cruz/Watsonville, Calif.21.4%Buffalo/Cheektowaga, N.Y.19.3%Charlottesville, Va.18.5%Norwich/New London, Conn.18.5%Scranton//Wilkes/Barre, Pa.18.0%Columbus, Ga./Ala.17.8%Bloomington, Ind.17.7%Duluth, Minn./Wis.17.6%
RetireesA household with one or two adults (65+) and no children living at home8.0%
Punta Gorda, Fla.19.0%Naples/Marco Island, Fla.17.2%Prescott Valley/Prescott, Ariz.16.2%North Port/Sarasota/Bradenton, Fla.15.1%Cape Coral, Fla14.4%Barnstable, Mass.13.9%Homosassa Springs, Fla.12.6%Myrtle Beach/Conway/North Myrtle Beach, S.C./N.C.12.5%Sebastian/Vero Beach, Fla.12.3%Deltona/Daytona Beach/Ormond Beach, Fla.12.1%
CoupleHousehold with two adults (ages 35 and under) and no children 7.7%
Johnson City, Tenn.10.8%Kingsport/Bristol, Tenn./Va.9.6%Madison, Wis.9.6%Florence, S.C.9.4%Trenton/Princeton, N.J.9.0%Winston/Salem, N.C.8.7%Florence/Muscle Shoals, Ala.8.6%Peoria, Ill.8.6%Jacksonville, N.C.8.5%Charleston/North Charleston, S.C.8.3%
Young FamilyA household with children (6 and under)7.1%
Florence/Muscle Shoals, Ala.13.8%Burlington, N.C.13.7%Tuscaloosa, Ala.13.1%Hammond, La.12.8%Daphne/Fairhope/Foley, Ala.12.8%Youngstown/Warren/Boardman, Ohio/Pa.12.6%Dover, Del.12.6%Duluth, Minn./Wis.12.4%Lafayette/West Lafayette, Ind.12.2%Columbia, Mo.11.5%

The below charts break down numerous MSA sizes and show which have the highest percentage of predicted properties. Several quintessential college towns under 750,000 in population are amongst the nation’s most predicted markets including: 

  • State College, Pa. (Penn State)
  • Corvallis, Ore. (Oregon State) 
  • Manhattan, Kan. (Kansas State)
  • Boulder, Colo. (Colorado)
  • Durham/Chapel Hill, N.C. (Duke/North Carolina)
  • Lansing/East Lansing, Mich. (Michigan State) 
Markets Under 100,000 PopulationPercentage of Properties Predicted to List (March ’23-March ’24)
State College, Pa..16.3%
Cape Girardeau, Mo./Ill.14.4%
Hinesville, Ga.12.9%
Midland, Mich.12.4%
Columbus, Ind.11.5%
Elmira, N.Y.11.4%
Corvallis, Ore.11.4%
Mobile, Ala.11.3%
Manhattan, Kan.11.0%
Parkersburg/Vienna, W.Va.10.8%
Markets 100,000-250,000 PopulationPercentage of Properties Predicted to List (March ’23-March ’24)
Punta Gorda, Fla.18.4%
Jacksonville, N.C.17.1%
Fort Smith, Ark./Okla.15.5%
Gettysburg, Pa.15.0%
Daphne/Fairhope/Foley, Ala.14.5%
Watertown-Fort Drum, N.Y.14.0%
Bend, Ore.14.0%
Prescott Valley/Prescott, Ariz.13.7%
Hilton Head Island/Bluffton, S.C.13.7%
Lake Havasu City/Kingman, Ariz.13.4%
Markets 250,000-500,000 PopulationPercentage of Properties Predicted to List (March ’23-March ’24)
Green Bay, Wis.16.9%
Reading, Pa.15.6%
Boulder, Colo.14.3%
Wilmington, N.C.14.1%
Canton/Massillon, Ohio14.1%
Cedar Rapids, Iowa13.8%
Longview, Texas13.7%
Crestview/Fort Walton Beach/Destin, Fla.13.5%
Naples/Marco Island, Fla.13.4%
Kennewick/Richland, Wash.13.2%
Markets 500,000-750,000 PopulationPercentage of Properties Predicted to List (March ’23-March ’24)
Des Moines/West Des Moines, Iowa15.7%
Durham/Chapel Hill, N.C.14.6%
Lansing/East Lansing, Mich.14.4%
Flagstaff, Ariz.13.5%
Deltona/Daytona Beach/Ormond Beach, Fla.12.8%
Pa.lm Bay/Melbourne/Titusville, Fla.12.8%
Harrisburg/Carlisle, Pa.12.4%
Myrtle Beach/Conway/North Myrtle Beach, S.C./N.C.12.3%
Springfield, Mass.12.2%
Pensacola/Ferry Pass/Brent, Fla.11.7%
Markets 750,000-1 Million PopulationPercentage of Properties Predicted to List (March ’23-March ’24)
Colorado Springs, Colo.16.6%
Charleston/North Charleston, S.C.15.1%
Omaha/Council Bluffs, Neb./Iowa13.4%
North Port/Sarasota/Bradenton, Fla.12.9%
Oxnard/Thousand Oaks/Ventura, Calif.12.7%
Boise City, Idaho12.7%
Little Rock/North Little Rock/Conway, Ark.12.2%
Albuquerque, N.M.12.1%
Worcester, Mass./Conn.12.0%
Greenville/Anderson, S.C.11.5%
Markets 1-2 Million PopulationPercentage of Properties Predicted to List (March ’23-March ’24)
Oklahoma City, Okla.15.4%
Grand Rapids/Kentwood, Mich.15.0%
Jacksonville, Fla.14.6%
Milwaukee/Waukesha, Wis.13.6%
Memphis, Tenn./Miss./Ark.12.7%
Fresno, Calif.12.7%
San Jose/Sunnyvale/Santa Clara, Calif.12.0%
Louisville/Jefferson County, Ky./Ind.11.8%
Raleigh/Cary, N.C.11.6%
Richmond, Va.11.5%
Markets 2-4 Million PopulationPercentage of Properties Predicted to List (March ’23-March ’24)
San Antonio/New Braunfels, Texas16.2%
Denver/Aurora/Lakewood, Colo.16.2%
Austin/Round Rock/Georgetown, Texas15.6%
Nashville/Davidson//Murfreesboro//Franklin, Tenn.14.1%
Portland/Vancouver/Hillsboro, Ore./Wash.14.0%
Pittsburgh, Pa.13.6%
Charlotte/Concord/Gastonia, N.C./S.C.13.6%
Indianapolis/Carmel/Anderson, Ind.13.5%
Baltimore/Columbia/Towson, Md.12.7%
St. Louis, Mo./Ill.11.9%
Markets 4-Or-More Million PopulationPercentage of Properties Predicted to List (March ’23-March ’24)
Atlanta/Sandy Springs/Alpharetta, Ga.14.4%
Sebastian/Vero Beach, Fla.14.3%
Riverside/San Bernardino/Ontario, Calif.13.7%
Dallas/Fort Worth/Arlington, Texas13.6%
Houston/The Woodlands/Sugar Land, Texas12.7%
Los Angeles/Long Beach/Anaheim, Calif.11.3%
Chicago/Naperville/Elgin, Ill./Ind./Wis.11.0%
Philadelphia/Camden/Wilmington, Pa./N.J./Del./Md.11.0%
Boston/Cambridge/Newton, Mass./N.H.10.8%
Phoenix/Mesa/Chandler, Ariz.9.9%

Methodology: More than 128 million households were included in a March 31, 2023, report that utilized more than 300 data points to discover which properties would likely come on the market. It also reviewed the homes it projected would be listed in March 2022 to determine which actually came on the market by March 31, 2023.

About nSKOPE  

nSkope is a predictive analytics tool utilized by research groups, brokerages, teams, individual agents, mortgage firms and other real estate-related groups to project coming listings. nSkope was launched in 2017 by TKI, and it reviews more than 128 million properties in approximately 20,000 zip codes around the U.S. nSkope utilizes more than 300 data points and proprietary algorithms enhanced by artificial intelligence to make its predictions. For more information, visit nSkope.com

About TKI

TKI was founded in 2002 and has worked with such clients as Comcast, QVC, Coldwell Banker Real Estate, Realogy, Cox, CTAM and the NFL. The software development company specializes in lead generation brand asset management and marketing automation. For more information visit TKInteractive.com

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