The CoreLogic Home Price Index (HPI™) and HPI Forecast™ unveiled the latest rankings for November 2023, showcasing Rhode Island as the leader in annual appreciation, marking an impressive 11.6% surge. Following closely behind, Connecticut saw a substantial uptick of 10.6%, while New Jersey experienced a commendable 10.5% increase in home prices.
Detroit pushed ahead of Miami, emerging as the fastest-appreciating housing market amongst the 20 tracked regions nationwide as of November 2023, boasting a remarkable 8.7% year-over-year surge in home prices. Conversely, Miami witnessed its housing market advance by 8.3% year over year, showcasing its resilience amidst the evolving real estate landscape.
Home price appreciation continued to push forward in November, despite the new highs in mortgage rates seen over the year. And while the annual growth reflects comparison with last year's declines, seasonal gains remain in line with historical averages. However, in some metro areas, such as those in the Mountain West and the Northwest, higher interest rates are having a greater impact on homebuyers’ budgets, which is contributing to a larger seasonal slump. This continued strength remains remarkable amid the nation’s affordability crunch but speaks to the pent-up demand that is driving home prices higher. Markets where the prolonged inventory shortage has been exacerbated by the lack of new homes for sale recorded notable price gains over the course of 2023.Dr. Selma Hepp, chief economist for CoreLogic
In November, there was a 5.2% increase in the annual growth of single-family home prices. The Northeast, South, and Midwest regions, known for their relative affordability that continues to fuel demand, experienced the most robust surge in home prices. Despite the slowdown in price growth in many of the nation's fastest-appreciating real estate markets during the pandemic, recent job gains have led to a resurgence, further amplified by the impact of The Inflation Reduction Act and the CHIPs Act on housing demand.
The CoreLogic HPI Forecast suggests that there will be a slight decrease in home prices from November 2023 to December 2023, with a month-over-month decline of -0.2%. However, the forecast also anticipates a 2.5% year-over-year increase in home prices from November 2023 to November 2024, indicating a positive trend in the real estate market. This projection provides valuable insight for potential buyers and sellers, allowing them to make informed decisions based on expected market conditions.
Meanwhile, the CoreLogic Market Risk Indicator (MRI) monthly assessment of the overall housing market health nationwide identified the Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL area as having a 70%-plus probability of experiencing a significant decline in home prices over the next 12 months. Furthermore, the West Palm Beach-Boca Raton-Delray Beach, FL; Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL; Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL; and Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA regions were also identified as being at very high risk for price declines.
The upcoming release of the CoreLogic Home Price Index, showcasing December 2023 data, is slated for issuance on February 6, 2024, at 8 a.m. EST.