The Covid-19 pandemic has transformed and accelerated migration patterns across the U.S., and some states are seeing thousands of new residents arrive. As a result, demand for homes in those areas is expected to go through the roof.
Data on U.S. migration patterns was shared by CoreLogic Chief Economist Frank Nothaft last week during the 2022 International Builders Show in Orlando, Florida. He revealed that the states of Texas, Florida, North Carolina, Arizona and Georgia saw the highest net population growth between 2020 and 2021.
They’re not the only states feeling the strain, though. Idaho, Utah, Montana, Arizona and South Carolina saw the highest net population growth on a percentage basis over the same period, CoreLogic data shows.
Nothaft said this population growth in the South and Mountain West is already driving big demand for new homes.
“Texas and Florida top the list and are the only two states to register a six-figure gain in population growth between 2020 and 2021, at 310,000 and 211,000 respectively,” Nothhaft said.
The economist noted how the data correlates with CoreLogic’s new home sale statistics. He said the top five metro markets for new home sales between 2020 and 2021 were Dallas, Houston, Atlanta, Phoenix and Austin, Texas.
Nothaft also forecast large population growth in the Mountain West and Southeast regions, plus Texas, from 2021 until 2030, and urged home builders to target those areas to meet the expected demand.
He added that the entry-level and first-time buyer market will see robust demand in a number of Southern and Western states. For instance, CoreLogic forecasts Idaho’s population of people aged between 20 and 29 will rise 15% by 2030, while Utah’s will grow 10%, Florida 9%, Arizona 8% and Texas 8%.
Nothaft told his audience he expects new home prices to rise by about 3.5% this year. “Demand should moderate because of affordability concerns – prices are up and mortgage rates are up,” he explained.