Commercial Real Estate Increases



The weak gross national product (GNP) volume increased 7.1 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis last week from the previous week, when appreciation fell 3.5 percent, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.

The drop in interest rates for the second week in a row also spurred a 10 percent increase in mortgage refinance activity from the previous week.

GNP

It’s not just the weak growth of the U.S. economy, it has much more to do with the weak and even shrinking world economy. This probably has much more to do with the global economy. Good or bad – it affects our economy. The good part it that it’s keeping interest rates low. The bad part is that it prevents a lot of people from qualifying for mortgages.

A construction worker or foreman at a construction site observing the progress of construction job or project, with copy space

A construction worker or foreman at a construction site observing the progress of construction job or project, with copy space

About $3.64 billion in loans securitized in commercial mortgage-backed securities issued since 2010 could be impaired by Macy, Inc.’s recently announced round of store closures according to Morningstar Credit Ratings, LLC. Identified are 28 Macy’s locations that reported below-average tenant sales and are the most at risk of closing. In total, CMBS exposure to Macy’s as an anchor or as a shadow anchor tenant near the actual collateral totals $28.49 billion. In an Aug. 11, 2016, statement, which came just months after the department-store retailer closed 36 locations, the retailer said it plans to shutter an additional 100 stores because of slowing traffic.

Commercial Construction

Based on industry experts addressing the local NAIOP chapter, the pricing estimates and availability of debt financing for new construction are about to get more complicated.

The regulatory changes going into effect from Dodd Frank and Bassal III require a lot more reserves (by banks) against loans. As a result, leverage is lower, rates are higher, and there’s a lot less demand from construction lenders to provide those loans.

When it comes to construction or remodeling, there has been some relief in material costs during the recession, but since then, prices have started to come back up. We’re seeing 10-15 percent increases on some things on a monthly or quarterly basis. But relative to where we were 10 years ago, we’re still seeing some relatively low materials cost.

What Banks are Doing Wrong

Retail banks, for instance, are failing to adjust to disruption by holding onto their expensive branch networks while more and more customers switch to digital banking,

The digital construction business no longer needs the old-fashioned banking model and technology allows them to create a digital proposition that, in my view, it betters a traditional retail banking proposition.

Everyone should be reconsidering their banking reltionship.

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BioAuthor bio: Brian Kline has been investing in real estate for more than 30 years and writing about real estate investing for seven years. He also draws upon 25 plus years of business experience including 12 years as a manager at Boeing Aircraft Company. Brian currently lives at Lake Cushman, Washington. A vacation destination, a few short miles from a national forest in the Olympic Mountains with the Pacific Ocean a couple of miles in the opposite direction.